Notable Exclusions: Deandre Ayton (No. 1) and Trae Young (No. 5)
Deandre Ayton and Trae Young will forever be linked to Luka Doncic, because they are not Luka Doncic, and because one of them was traded for Luka Doncic. But they're also their own players, with their own careers, and they're damn good.
Young is already an All-Star, and Ayton, after making serious strides on defense, is a dependable jumper away from entering the elite-big discussion. Phoenix and Atlanta, respectively, missed on the much better player in their draft slots. They didn't pick bad ones.
4. Mo Bamba, Orlando Magic
Pick Number: 6
Two years into his career, Mo Bamba doesn't look like he'll ever come close to living up to his hype entering the 2018 draft. His size, absurd wingspan and shooting had him firmly in the top-five running, a significant feat given the ridiculous depth of the 2018 rookie class.
Injuries and opportunity haven't helped his case. A left tibia issue prematurely ended his inaugural campaign, and the Magic had, and continue to have, a logjam up front with Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Nikola Vucevic. But Bamba hasn't exactly done his part. He has yet to shoot a league-average clip from deep or even decidedly beat out Khem Birch for secondary big minutes.
On the flip side, Bamba's three-point percentage did jump by 4.6 points from his rookie to sophomore season, and his shot-blocking continues to be an asset in small bursts. He closed 2019-20 averaging 3.5 swats per 36 minutes, and opponents saw their accuracy inside six feet drop 10.5 percentage points below their normal rate when being challenged by him.
All of which renders Bamba something of an enduring a mystery box. That works in service of preserving hope for his future. But the Magic needed to make more of their top-six pick in a ludicrously talented draft. And it most certainly doesn't bode well for them that Bamba's best-case scenario includes their finding a new home for him or Vucevic.
3. Jerome Robinson, Los Angeles Clippers
Pick Number: 13
Jerome Robinson has used his time with the Washington Wizards to show he has NBA minutes in him. His bubble performance in particular hinted at a more reliable microwave scorer. He averaged 14.8 points and 2.8 assists while downing 36.7 percent of his treys through those eight games—though his efficiency dipped after his first outing, in which he went 7-of-9 from the floor.
Questions abound about his future in Washington. He isn't clearing 25-plus minutes per game following the return of John Wall. Nor is he the type of player who's accustomed to spending large swathes of time off the ball. He may need more touches to develop than the Wizards can afford to give.
Of course, Robinson could explode in Washington, and it wouldn't do anything for the Clippers. Taking him when they already had Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and acquired Shai Gilgeous-Alexander felt a little redundant. They never had the runway to give him ample opportunity, and his greatest contribution came as the salary cog in the three-team deal that net them Marcus Morris Sr.
2. Kevin Knox, New York Knicks
Pick Number: 9
Kevin Knox coaxed observers into a state of hoppy optimism thanks to his 2018 summer-league performance. He flashed off-the-dribble shot-making and pick-and-roll initiation. What did it matter that he converted under 35 percent of his twos and left Las Vegas with more turnovers than assists? It looked promising.
So much for that.
Knox's first two seasons with the Knicks have been disastrous. He is shooting under 39 percent inside the arc for his career and saw his efficiency drop amid a less-prominent role as a sophomore. New York hasn't given him nearly as much control over the offense as he enjoyed during summer league, but he never projected as a primary creator.
To be sure, the Knicks haven't made his life easy. His playing time has waxed and waned, and they don't have the table-setters necessary to set him up for high-quality looks or the shooting around him to let him plumb the depths of his on-ball creation. They'll be lucky to sell medium on him if he can't turn into a viable catch-and-fire marksman.
Striking out at No. 9 doesn't usually warrant so much hair-pulling, but distinct alternatives were still on the board. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made too much sense in the moment, and if the Knicks didn't want to invest in an older rookie like Mikal Bridges, they certainly could have afforded to take Michael Porter Jr. and give him a redshirt year.
1. Marvin Bagley III, Sacramento Kings
Pick Number: 2
I count myself as a Marvin Bagley III optimist. The tail end to his rookie season swayed me. He buried 40 percent of his threes after the trade deadline and displayed better, more deliberate movement without the ball. His comfort level on turnaround jumpers was chef's kiss material. They weren't always the smartest looks and he wasn't an efficient post player, but he sank 54.2 percent of his hook shots and 51.6 percent of his turnaround hooks.
This was never going to help him escape the Boogieman, Luka Doncic. It might've been enough to sneak him into the Ayton and Young tier: good players, wrong choices. But Bagley's sophomore season did more harm than good. Injuries limited him to 13 appearances, and the games he played did nothing to quash concerns about whether he'll hang defensively at either the 4 or 5.
The good news: Bagley is just 21. He has time to become a really good NBA player. For now, he's the guy who played in just 75 games over his first two seasons when the Kings could have taken Luka Doncic.
