Anyone hoping to see Kentucky’s 2023-24 roster really begin taking shape on Thursday was sorely disappointed — unless you consider half-empty vessels a shape. From a depth perspective, Thursday’s news actually put the Wildcats in fairly perilous shape. The only good news was that the Hunter Dickinson saga finally ended, but the top transfer in the country chose Kansas over Kentucky. Soon after that announcement, rising senior forward Lance Ware, a career backup who appeared in 77 games and has been a quality locker-room presence, announced he’s entering the transfer portal.
Advertisement
With that came a new reality. Though John Calipari might’ve made peace with the idea of moving on from his two-time All-American center, it’s time to put the full-court press on Oscar Tshiebwe to come back for a third season in Lexington.
Because right now, the Cats have just two post players and the oldest guy currently committed to being on next season’s roster is 19. When the dust settles, after all the pending portal moves and NBA Draft decisions, it’s possible neither Dickinson’s nor Ware’s announcements end up having a major impact on Calipari’s team. But here is what Thursday’s news means at the moment: Kentucky has exactly seven scholarship players locked in for next season. Five freshmen and two sophomores. That’s it.
Tshiebwe, Chris Livingston and Antonio Reeves are all testing the NBA Draft waters. Cason Wallace and Jacob Toppin are both staying in the draft. Ware, Sahivr Wheeler (Washington), CJ Fredrick (Cincinnati) and Daimion Collins (TBD) are transferring. There is a decent chance the Wildcats go from one of the most experienced teams in the country to one of the youngest in a single offseason. Not that Calipari is uncomfortable going young — that had been the norm until recently — but in the age of transfers, NIL and that lingering bonus year for COVID-19, college basketball is ruled by veteran teams now.
Even a vintage No. 1 recruiting class for Calipari is probably not enough, on its own, to get the Wildcats back to their first Final Four since 2015. Incoming freshmen Justin Edwards, Bradshaw, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard rank No. 3, 4, 6, 15 and 40 overall, respectively, in the Class of 2023. Rising sophomores Ugonna Onyenso and Adou Thiero are both promising young prospects too. But those guys need some older, more established, proven college players around them to hold it all together. Right now, they have none. So what next?
Lance has gotten better every year. He’s an exceptional leader & as good a teammate as I’ve ever coached. He knows he is welcome to return if he doesn’t find the opportunity he’s looking for.
Lance is Ellen’s favorite player, so I’m really not looking forward to telling her the…
— John Calipari (@UKCoachCalipari) May 4, 2023
The majority of Calipari and his staff’s recruiting efforts should be focused on convincing Tshiebwe, Livingston and Reeves to return. A clean sweep of those three would be just as big as it is unlikely, although none of them is a projected first-round pick or even a lock to be drafted at all. Surely the NIL money at Kentucky would be competitive with any two-way deal they might sign as pros. Of that trio, Reeves is most likely to come back, and that alone would be a huge stabilizer. He has played in 123 college games, shot 40 percent from 3-point range last season and averaged 17.2 points over one 19-game stretch for the Cats.
Advertisement
Livingston, a muscled-up former McDonald’s All-American forward who hit his stride late last season (8.5 points, 6.9 rebounds over the final 11 games), is the biggest wild card. His return would give Kentucky flexibility — he could be a mismatch problem on the wing or as a stretch-four — but there’s been very little buzz about his thought process since he entered the draft with intentions to maintain eligibility. Livingston remains open to a return, but his camp seems to be leaning toward the pro route.
Then there’s Tshiebwe, the biggest domino of all. The 2022 national player of the year has waffled between chasing his NBA dream and the fact he’d likely earn more in NIL income with another year at Kentucky. The overwhelming feedback is Tshiebwe will be a second-round pick, if that, and likely start out on a two-way deal. He has been working out for teams, searching for a promise of more than that, and has two workouts left. Had Kentucky landed Dickinson, his decision would’ve been a little easier. Now, he and the Cats find themselves likely needing each other again.
Calipari told Dan Patrick Thursday that he met with Tshiebwe in Lexington the day before to talk about his future and said he’s trying to help him get to the NBA, but he’d be thrilled to coach him again if it’s not time.
Getting back Reeves and Tshiebwe, ages 23 and 24 by next season, would certainly stabilize the foundation of an otherwise baby-faced team — but even that wouldn’t be quite enough. That would give Kentucky nine guys. There are 13 available scholarships. And after three consecutive seasons that were deeply impacted by injuries, it’s time for Calipari and company to get busy adding another couple of pieces, at least.
There has been at least some mutual interest between Kentucky and transfer guards Tyrin Lawrence (Vanderbilt) and Jordan Dingle (Penn), whose father played for Calipari at UMass. There needs to be more movement to solidify the frontcourt, whether Tshiebwe returns or not. With him, that’s three total big men. Without him, just two. That won’t work. So where should Calipari be looking?
Advertisement
After Kansas landed Dickinson, who had been The Athletic’s No.1-rated transfer, that honor now belongs to 6-foot-11 North Dakota State transfer Grant Nelson, who averaged 17.9 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.7 blocks last season. He’s a big man who can dribble, pass and shoot, and could — like Dickinson — really space the floor and open things up for Kentucky offensively. He and Bradshaw, who wants to be utilized as a stretch-four, could also be used interchangeably, at either spot, playing together or in place of each other. Nelson is also considering the draft.
There’s also 6-10 Oklahoma State transfer Moussa Cisse, who is one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the country (13.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks per 40 minutes in his college career). But he’s a second-time transfer and immediate eligibility would be a question. So far, most importantly, there’s been no word of serious interest or contact between Kentucky and either Nelson or Cisse. There have been reports of Calipari reaching out to top-five recruit Ron Holland, a power forward who recently decommitted from Texas and is UK’s only big miss in the 2023 class, but that one seems like a long shot. UCLA, Arkansas and the pro route will all be tough to beat for Holland.
This means the Wildcats are (or had better be) far from done filling out this roster.
(Top photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
