Fantasy football 2023 All-Value All Stars: Daniel Jones, Brandon Aiyuk and more

Value.

It’s the most important word in fantasy football. It’s how leagues are won. It’s the managers who can pinpoint this year’s Geno Smith, Tony Pollard, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram who will enter the season much better-equipped to have success in the regular season.

Is it a guarantee? No — there are no guarantees in fantasy football. But drafting players who outproduce their draft slot is usually preferable to using a second-round pick on a player who puts up fifth-round numbers. Or so I hear, anyway.

Several years back, in an effort to help fantasy managers pinpoint potential values on draft day, I created an exercise — the All-Value All Stars.

The “rules” are simple — the All-Value All Stars are a team with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end and a flex spot. The twist is that every player needs to come in the range one slot lower than where’s he’s slotted. The quarterback and tight end have to possess an ADP outside the Top 12 at Fantasy Pros. The RB2 needs to come from outside the Top 24. The WR3 needs to have an ADP outside the Top 48. And so on.

Now that we know the criteria for inclusion in the 2023 All-Value All Stars, let’s start rolling out this year’s squad, beginning with the starting quarterback.

Daniel Jones, QB, NYG (ADP: QB14)

Jones was one of the bigger surprises among fantasy quarterbacks last year, parlaying a career year into a four-year, $160 million contract. A big part of that breakout campaign was over 700 rushing yards, and while speaking to reporters, Giants quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney said the Giants are encouraging Jones to improvise even more in 2023.

“We’re not emphasizing necessarily getting out of the pocket and making plays but when it’s there and you feel it you’ve got to have kind of a natural feel,’’ Tierney said. “When you have that natural feel, it just becomes let your instincts take over and go.’’

It was tempting to go with the floor of Kirk Cousins of the Vikings here. Or the ceiling of Anthony Richardson of the Colts. But Jones rushed for 708 yards last year — fifth most among quarterbacks. He also finished the season as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback in many scoring systems. In his second year in Brian Daboll’s offense, with improved passing-game weapons, it’s not unreasonable to expect Jones to better those marks this season.

Aaron Jones, RB, GB (ADP: RB16)

The times are changing in Titletown — Aaron Rodgers is no longer the quarterback, and with the Jordan Love era beginning, new players are stepping into leadership roles. One of those players is Jones, who told reporters that while this is Love’s team, he’s become more vocal in his own right in the locker room.

“I’ve had to become a little bit more vocal,” Jones said. “We have a very, very young team. I was more of a lead-by-example guy, but now I’ve had to become more vocal because we don’t have those vets that we have had like the Randall Cobb’s, Aaron Rodgers’ and Marcedes Lewis’ on the offensive side of the ball. I have to [become more vocal]. It’s only right. Those guys did it for me, instilled the confidence and so many other things in me, so it’s only right that I give it back to these young guys.”

Even in a “down” year for the Packers in 2022, Jones piled up 1,516 scrimmage yards, caught 59 passes and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. He also finished among the NFL leaders in missed tackles (53) and yards after contact per attempt (3.2). He was also a Top 12 PPR running back for the fourth consecutive season. Fantasy drafters are grossly overreacting to the quarterback change in Green Bay. Take advantage of that.

James Conner, RB, ARI (ADP: RB25)

There may not be a team in the entire NFL generating less enthusiasm among fantasy managers in 2023 than the Cardinals. Quarterback Kyler Murray is hurt and will likely miss a chunk of the regular season. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is gone. But per ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss, veteran running back James Conner is excited about playing in new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system.

“It’s exciting seeing the film (from Cleveland) and watching some of those guys get the lanes and running 10, 15 yards downfield, sometimes untouched,” Conner said. “So, yeah, it’s exciting. I believe I’m a talented back and it’s going to be a big year.”

Now, Arizona doesn’t have the Browns’ stellar offensive line, but you can bet the rent that the Redbirds will run the ball more under Jonathan Gannon than they did under Kliff Kingsbury. You can also bet the rent that with Colt McCoy under center the Cardinals will lean that much more heavily on the ground game. Conner may not be the flashiest back, but he averaged 4.3 yards per carry and was the fantasy RB9 in PPR points per game in 2022. Sacrificing a little sizzle to get steak at value isn’t a bad thing.

Amari Cooper, WR, CLE (ADP: WR18)

Cooper’s first year in Cleveland was a highlight for the Browns, catching 78 passes for 1,160 yards and nine scores despite shaky quarterback play. Now, with Deshaun Watson having some playing time and a full offseason in Cleveland under his belt, Cooper expects even bigger and better things in 2023 — and he intends to help lead a young wideout corps in the process.

“As one of the vets, you set the tone,” Cooper said, via the team’s website. “You set the tone for what the receiver’s group is going to be. I always try to lead by example. I’m always pushing the guys to be better every day, but it’s more believable when you’re actively showing them that you’re trying to be better every day. And that’s what I try to do.”

Cooper posted the numbers he did last year and finished his first season with the Browns 10th in PPR points among wide receivers despite catching passes from Jacoby Brissett and a clearly rusty Watson. Given the improvements to his situation, Cooper’s ADP is proof of the depth of the second and third tiers of wide receivers — lending some credence to the idea of attacking the running back position early in 2023.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF (ADP: WR28)

Aiyuk has already had his coming-out party — last year he led the 49ers in targets (114), receptions (78) and receiving yards (1,015) and finished second to tight end George Kittle with eight touchdowns. However, while Aiyuk’s third season was impressive, as Eric Williams wrote for Fox Sports, Kittle thinks we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with the 25-year-old.

“Now that he’s figured out the offense, he gets to add his own sauce on top of all that,” Kittle said. “And so now you see those cool plays, those cool catches where he’s ripping it away from people. He’s just taken another step. And it’s because he has this foundation, this understanding of this awesome offense, that gives him the opportunity to just route people up and look like a superstar — which is what he is.”

Aiyuk was 15th in fantasy points among wide receivers last year, but the fantasy community seems skeptical that he can back those numbers up. But even with Deebo Samuel, Kittle and Christian McCaffrey on the team, there’s little reason to believe that San Francisco’s most-targeted player last season is suddenly going to vanish from the offense. In fact, it’s just as plausible that Kittle’s right that Aiyuk will have an even better 2023.

Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS (ADP: WR37)

Dotson had a relatively quiet rookie season as a whole — the first-round pick from Penn State caught just 35 passes for 523 yards, although seven of those catches went for scores. However, while outlining his Top 5 breakout wide receivers for the 2023 season, The Athletic’s own Jake Ciely put Dotson right at the top of the list.

“Dotson won’t score 15 touchdowns, but we’re talking about one of the best 2022 rookie receivers regarding speed, route manipulation and YAC,” he wrote. “Finding space and the end zone is part of Dotson’s game, and he is a great complement to Terry McLaurin as the top two weapons for (Sam) Howell. Dotson can take a Brandon Aiyuk-type step forward, pushing into the Top 20 receivers. In fact, if Dotson equals or comes close to McLaurin’s target share, Dotson finishing higher is a real possibility.”

From Week 13 on last year, Dotson was a Top 15 fantasy wideout in terms of fantasy points per game, but fantasy managers have either forgotten that or are leery of Sam Howell’s viability as an NFL starter. But if Howell is even a competent quarterback, Dotson could be a fantasy WR2 — as Ciely said, there’s a non-zero chance he could out-point McLaurin in 2023.

Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR (ADP: TE14)

Higbee has been around the block once or twice — the 2023 season will be Higbee’s eighth in the NFL. Higbee set career highs last year in both targets (108) and catches (72), but as he told Cameron Da Silva of Rams Wire, he’s actually in a much better place in 2023 than he was a season ago,

“Year 8, you’re playing football, your body’s not always going to be as healthy as it was 8-10 years ago,” Higbee said. “But yeah, I feel good. Last year, having the knee surgery, knee injury, but I felt like I was able to kind of put on that armor to get through a season. I feel good coming into this year. I feel much better than I did last year at this point.”

This was the toughest call of the All-Value All-Stars, if only because the tight ends available outside the Top 12 aren’t especially impressive. But after an exodus of veteran talent, there’s a real chance that Higbee will be the No. 2 option in the Rams passing attack. If he gets 100-plus targets again and Matthew Stafford stays healthy, the 30-year-old could sneak his way into the back end of TE1 territory.

Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL (ADP: WR39)

After being traded from the Texans to the Cowboys in the offseason, Cooks holds the distinction of being traded four times — as many times as any player in the NFL ever has been. However, while appearing on NFL Total Access, Cooks said he sees this move as a chance to get back to being a 1,000-yard receiver.

“It’s time to get back,” Cooks said. “A lot has to come with that. At the end of the day, like I said earlier, we’ve got some special guys throughout the offense, all the offensive weapons we have, I’m just going to do my best to the best of my ability, and when we look up at the end of the season, we’ll see where we’re at.”

Cooks isn’t getting any younger — he’ll turn 30 in September. But the veteran wide receiver has posted half a dozen 1,000-yard campaigns, and according to reports, he has wasted no time making a positive impression in his new home. As recently as two years ago, Cooks caught 90 passes, topped 1,000 yards and finished as a Top 20 fantasy wideout. He’s capable of posting similar numbers playing opposite CeeDee Lamb in a Cowboys offense that could be scary in 2023.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.

(Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)