Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Wild Card predictions, pitching matchups and what you need to know

The postseason potential of the Milwaukee Brewers, winners of the National League Central for the third time since 2018, received a significant boost in early August when Brandon Woodruff came off the injured list. The return of Woodruff, who posted a 2.59 ERA in nine starts after missing most of the summer with a shoulder injury, strengthened a rotation already humming along with Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley.

As usual, the Brewers rode their pitchers into the postseason. Milwaukee excels at run prevention. Burnes and Woodruff have been among the best pitchers in the sport for several seasons. If Milwaukee makes a run this month, these arms are likely to power them.

Yet the team’s ceiling looks limited for another familiar reason: The offense ranked 23rd in the majors in OPS, sandwiched between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees in mediocrity. William Contreras delivered a strong performance in his first season as a starting catcher. Christian Yelich, the former National League MVP, put together his best offensive season since 2019. But the rest of the regulars are unlikely to strike fear into opposing pitchers.

The Arizona Diamondbacks lack the pitching depth to enter any five-game or seven-game series as a big favorite. While trying to secure a postseason berth in the season’s final weekend, the team needed to use both of its top starters, Zac Gallen (17-8, 3.49 ERA) and Merrill Kelly (12-7, 3.38 ERA), so the Diamondbacks will turn to rookie Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) for Game 1. The offense is led by 23-year-old outfielder Corbin Carroll, who will likely run away with the National League Rookie of the Year award. Under manager Torey Lovullo, the Diamondbacks tend to play a crisp, tidy brand of baseball, which the new rules have made even more important. — Andy McCullough

GO DEEPER

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Game times

Game 1: Diamondbacks at Brewers, Tuesday, Oct. 3 at 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Probable starters: Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72) vs. Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39)

Game 2: Diamondbacks at Brewers, Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Probable starters: TBD vs. TBD

Game 3: Diamondbacks at Brewers, Thursday, Oct. 5 at 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN2 (if necessary)

Probable starters: TBD vs. TBD

Tale of the Tape

Who has the edge?

Teams	R/G	SP ERA	RP ERA	DRS
4.63 (14th)	4.65 (21st)	4.22 (18th)	48 (4th)
4.50 (17th)	3.96 (6th)	3.43 (3rd)	68 (2nd)

Brewers top performers

Player	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	C	.290/.367/.459, .358 wOBA	5.4
Rotation	RHP	3.39 ERA, 1.02 HR/9	3.5
Bullpen	RHP	1.53 ERA, 37.7 K%	1.8
Fielding	2B	DRS 12, 3.7 UZR	0.2

Diamondbacks top performers

Player	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	OF	25 HR, 54 SB, 134 OPS+	5.9
Rotation	RHP	3.47 ERA, 0.94 HR/9	5.2
Bullpen	RHP	2.48 ERA, 50.3 GB%	1.3
Fielding	C	104 G, 21 DRS	1.7

Pitching matchups

A couple of arms stand out as fulcrums in this series. Peralta cut his first-half ERA by nearly two runs in the second half. He also increased the velocity and drop on his slider and curve and threw his secondaries more. His strikeout minus walk rate led the league in the second half, making it a fearsome threesome for the Brewers, along with co-aces Woodruff and Burnes.

D-Backs ace Zac Gallen pitched 210 innings across 34 games in 2023. (Chris Sweda / Chicago Tribune / Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

For Arizona, Gallen is No. 1 and can go toe to toe with anyone, but Kelly may be the key to advancing. The steady No. 2 starter doesn’t throw hard (almost a mile per hour slower than the average righty starter), but he has a great changeup and excellent command of six pitches he throws over 5 percent of the time. Kelly was the only starter in baseball who threw 100 innings and managed to have above-average locations on all of his six regularly thrown pitches (George Kirby, Zach Eflin and Aaron Nola were closest).

If you look just at the starters that are likely to pitch, you might be surprised to find that the Diamondbacks are favored. But that’s almost all Gallen, and Milwaukee would be favored in two of the three possible matchups. The Brewers come in with a higher strikeout rate and a lower ERA, as you might expect, but they also do well thanks to the best defense in baseball. In the bullpen, full-season numbers favor the Brewers by a ton (the Diamondbacks had the seventh-worst pen in baseball), but if you look at the last month and use only four relievers (to reflect the comings and goings in those two pens), they are in a virtual tie overall.

Overall, Milwaukee has a smaller-than-you-might-expect advantage on the pitching side. — Eno Sarris

Why the Brewers will win

The short answer is pitching. Courtesy of their shutout win on Sunday, the Brewers staff finished with the best ERA in baseball in 2023. When it comes to the postseason, the teams with the best and deepest bullpens always have an advantage. Devin Williams is an elite closer. But Milwaukee also has Bryse Wilson, Joel Payamps, Holby Milner and Abner Uribe. The Brewers offense is not dominant — their .705 team OPS ranks far below any other playoff team. But the 2023 resurgence of Yelich and the offseason acquisition of Contreras have boosted their lineup. They’ve also added some established hitters like Carlos Santana, Mark Canha and Josh Donaldson mid-season. The Brewers are a balanced team, and their pitching can be extremely dangerous, particularly in a short series with an ace like Burnes to get the team off to a good start. The Brewers are one of six teams to never win a World Series. In a year without many clear favorites, maybe this is their best chance. — Sam Blum

Why the Diamondbacks will win

The Diamondbacks don’t have the flashiest roster. But they have a ton of young talent. Carroll was a revelation in his rookie season, blasting 25 homers and stealing 54 bases. Christian Walker is probably one of the least talked about power bats in the game. He finished the year with 33 homers and 103 batted in. Gallen and Kelly are a great 1-2 punch. But the real wild card might be Pfaadt. He has a 5.72 ERA this season but has the capability to dominate, as he did in his final outing of the regular season against the Chicago White Sox. Joe Mantiply didn’t repeat his 2022 All-Star season this year, but he also has a 1.38 ERA in September. Arizona is not the most dominant team in the field. They might be, on paper, the weakest team. But the playoffs are incredibly fickle. And there’s enough there to win games. Their young core might not feel the weight of the postseason, and that could make them super dangerous. — Blum

Staff predictions for MIL/AZ series