Over the course of our work on the Player Tiers project — whether it happens organically or because we go out of our way to explore them — themes tend to emerge. This year, what comes next for Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield was a major one.
Ultimately, both players landed on Tier 4D, as low-end first-liners, and the tenets of that conversation can be ported over to this one. Nothing is impossible. Both players are still young (though Suzuki turned 24 over the summer). Both players are good. But at the moment, and barring some real strides in the next couple years, they’re tracking to be members of a core — not the top two pieces on a contender. For 2023-24, both are projected to provide Net Ratings that, while positive, are far below the average No. 1 and No. 2 forwards on an NHL team.
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Montreal Canadiens 2023-24 season preview
In the Tiers project, 31 centers ranked ahead of Suzuki. That placement actually outstrips his plus-3 Net Rating, which is tied for second among Montreal’s forwards. Suzuki’s main issue hasn’t changed: He gives up far too much on the defensive end without producing enough points to be treated as a high-end, first-line center. The offensive skill is obvious, and some of the explanations are reasonable, but still, if he’s going to be more than a first-liner on a bad team, something needs to change.
What if he ratcheted up his impact on his own end back to his 2020 levels, rather than hovering around the 43 percent expected-goal mark over the last two seasons? How about becoming a 90-point scorer, instead of putting up 2.18 and 2.29 per 60? If he managed either, the discussion would shift. For now, though, through nearly 300 NHL games, he’s always sacrificed one side of the ice for the other. He is what he is; a guy coming off a career-high 66-point season at the expense of his defensive game.
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“I think he’s a very good player. Very smart. But I just don’t think he’s (a 1C on a good team). Could he get there? Potentially,” one coach said. “But I think the sample size is big enough. Based on his age, I don’t know how much better he’s going to get. Maybe it’s more a reflection on where Montreal is right now.”
Maybe, indeed. Suzuki could also benefit from Kirby Dach taking over as a full-time second-line center and absorbing some of those tougher minutes. Other in-house options — Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans, Sean Monahan — aren’t long-term fits, especially if they need to share the load with Suzuki. There’s nothing wrong with the player he’s become, but we’re also not having this sort of conversation about true-blue, high-end centers. By the time they’re 24, they tend to handle what’s thrown at them, regardless of whether it’s fair.
The easiest path forward, though, might be going all in on point production — and if Caufield stays healthy, that’s a possibility. He was on a 46-goal pace (26 total, 19 even strength) when a shoulder injury ended his season in January, and the chemistry between him and Suzuki was clear. One has the vision, one has the shot. The fun factor? Certainly present.
Specifically, Caufield generated 17.91 shots/60 last season, according to Corey Sznajder’s data. The players ahead of him were two bottom-sixers (Daniel Sprong and Mikey Eyssimont), an underappreciated gem (Nikolaj Ehlers) and three members of the league’s ruling class (Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak). That type of volume, combined with his clear finishing talent and Suzuki’s ability to set him up, could be the start of something big.
The problem, though, would be if both players’ defensive issues compound one another. When they were together last season, offensively productive and aesthetically pleasing as it might have been, Montreal only outscored its opponents 36-34. Their expected goals percentage (42.8) was even uglier. Caufield, like Suzuki, ultimately pays the price for poor defense and too little point production, with a plus-5 projected Net Rating that’s both Montreal’s best and 10 off the pace for No. 1 forwards league-wide. That, in a nutshell, is Montreal’s problem. Are they good, or are they good enough to win playoff series? Are they pieces, or are they key pieces?
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As we said earlier, both could improve in that space with coaching, physical maturation or the right linemate. That’s good news for the Canadiens, because improvement at the top of its lineup, regardless of where it comes from, is going to be necessary. Suzuki and Caufield seem capable of providing that, but the clock might soon be ticking.
(Photo of Cole Caufield: David Kirouac / USA Today)
