Big Ten projected win totals, best bets from Austin Mock’s model: Can Penn State push Ohio State and Michigan?

The 2022 college football season was kind to the Big Ten with two members reaching the College Football Playoff for the first time in CFP history. As for 2023, the Big Ten is hoping for the same fortune. The conference boasts three true playoff contenders at the top.

While success hasn’t come to fruition in the playoff for the Big Ten, the nation’s second-best conference argues to boast three of the top five teams in the country this season (my projections believe so) and if two teams aren’t still alive come conference championship weekend in December, things would have gone wrong.

My college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data and adjusts for opponent. From those derived ratings, I’m able to then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title. These can then be used against the betting market or just for general trash talking among fan bases.

Here’s a look at what the model says for all 14 Big Ten teams this season. Projections for the Big 12 and SEC have already been posted.

Big Ten projections

XWINS is the average win total over the model’s simulations. CONF. TITLE is how often the team won the conference title game. 6+ WINS is how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

team	xwins	Conf. title
10.5	34.58%	100.0%
10.3	33.11%	100.0%
9.9	14.74%	100.0%
8.7	11.19%	98.9%
7.4	2.37%	92.4%
6.6	2.01%	75.8%
6.0	0.96%	63.8%
5.3	0.64%	45.3%
5.7	0.22%	55.1%
7.0	0.17%	86.9%
4.5	0.01%	22.4%
4.5	0.00%	19.7%
4.1	0.00%	15.5%
3.3	0.00%	4.1%

Michigan, of course, is the back-to-back Big Ten champ and has two playoff berths to go along with the hardware. The Wolverines return a lot from last year’s squad and will have national championship aspirations this season. While the Wolverines are the favorites in my simulations, they aren’t the favorites according to oddsmakers in sportsbooks across the globe, albeit by the slightest of margins. It’s either matching odds between Michigan and Ohio State or a slight edge to OSU.

The Buckeyes lost star quarterback C.J. Stroud and a few members of their offensive line to the NFL this offseason but Ryan Day’s program recruits as well as anyone and looks to reload this fall. These two rivals are the clear top two in the conference as fall camp is right around the corner and it’s likely The Game on the Saturday after Thanksgiving will have College Football Playoff implications for both teams for the third year in a row.

I mentioned that the conference has three playoff contenders, right? I did. And that team is Penn State. James Franklin’s squad went 10-2 last regular season with two losses to the two aforementioned teams and they had a fourth-quarter lead against Ohio State. The Nittany Lions return two stud running backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, as well as one of the nation’s best offensive lineman in Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Drew Allar, a 5-star recruit heading into his sophomore season, will likely get the nod under center and if he can play to his potential, the Big Ten’s two-headed race will quickly become three. The schedule sets ups nicely as Allar might not throw a meaningful pass until the mid-October bout in Columbus. Either way, Penn State is one of the country’s best in 2023 and should easily get to 10 wins.

After those three, though, a true playoff contender doesn’t exist — at least not yet — but the conference has plenty of interesting storylines heading into the season. Luke Fickell takes over at Wisconsin and attempts to install an air raid offense. Iowa is still Iowa, but former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara should boost the offense. P.J. Fleck and Minnesota look to take the next step forward and Matt Rhule looks to turn Nebraska around. If Fickell and Rhule right the ship in Year 1, the Big Ten could have a sneaky fun year top to bottom.

But ultimately, the Big Ten needs one of those teams, or anyone really, to step up and join the national conversation. Sure, UCLA and USC join the conference next season but it’s been the big 3 in the Big Ten East for too long and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change this season. That’s why the Big Ten is the second-best conference in college football, behind the SEC.

Best bets

All wagers are to win 0.5 units on favorites and risk 0.5 units on underdogs unless otherwise noted.

Indiana under 3.5 wins (+110)

Long gone are the days of the 2020 COVID-shortened season when many argued to put Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game over Ohio State. Indiana has just six wins over the last two seasons and I don’t believe things are trending up. There just isn’t anything that excites me about this football team. Recruiting? No. Returning production? No. Super easy schedule? No. The offense should be better than the defense but it’s projected to be an average unit at best in my projections. Louisville is on the non-conference slate and crossover games with Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue don’t make things any easier. Maybe the Hoosiers can surprise but at plus-money, I can’t pass this up.

Iowa under 8.5 wins (-120)

I can’t get close to this number. Yes, I know, Iowa will find a way to be plus-25 in turnover differential and win nine games so I lose this bet, but the numbers are what they are. Cade McNamara should be a great game manager for this offense, but are we sure the offense can make the necessary strides? Road games at Iowa State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska shouldn’t be easy and you never know if you’ll get easy wins with this offense. The defense will be very good, again, but until the offense modernizes a bit, I can’t be bullish on this team.

Maryland under 7.5 wins (-105)

The last time Maryland won eight games in the regular season? 2009. That was five (5) head coaches ago and they still played in the ACC. Taulia Tagovailoa can be awesome at times, but trusting him over an entire regular season is a tough thing to do. Sure, he will win the Terps some games but between inconsistent play, injuries, etc., things can get pretty low too. I think Maryland will be decent, but just not to the level of Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State. And since the Terrapins in the Big Ten East, they have to play those three teams. Sure, they get Michigan and Penn State at home this year (I’m not sure Penn State will be a home crowd for the Terps, though) but those teams are just in a different class. The most likely outcome is 7-5 per my simulations, but six wins is more likely than eight.

Michigan State under 5.5 wins (-160)

I don’t need to dive deep into the fact that Michigan State only won five games last season, lost a ton of production on offense, and plays in the Big Ten East. There are also crossover matchups at Iowa and Minnesota and a home game against Nebraska. But on top of that, Washington travels to East Lansing this year. Look, even if they returned a decent amount of their production from last season, it would be a tall task for Sparty to go bowling this season. As more time passes, it seems Kenneth Walker II should have won the Heisman Trophy in 2021 because Michigan State has fallen off a cliff since he went to the NFL.

Minnesota under 7.5 wins (-150)

OK, I promise we will get to an over eventually but not with Minnesota. I don’t love this bet as P.J. Fleck seems to win games, but coming off an eight-win season and losing a ton of production isn’t a recipe to win eight games again. Throw in drawing Michigan and Ohio State in crossover games and a non-conference bout with North Carolina, and Fleck has his work cut out for him. Wisconsin and Nebraska likely improve as well. Minnesota is similar to Iowa in that its defense will carry it and the offense will be its downfall. I’m just not sure if the Minnesota defense is going to hold up against more athletic offenses. Penn State put up almost 500 yards of offense against the Gopher defense last year and I think the Nittany Lions took most of the fourth quarter off. I don’t mind betting under seven wins if you don’t want to stomach the juice. My numbers project Minnesota to be fighting to make a bowl this year.

Penn State over 9.5 wins (-145) (to win 1 unit)

Finally an over! As mentioned earlier, Penn State is contending for a playoff spot this year, and double-digit wins should be easy. You can even write off the Michigan and Ohio State games as losses — even though they certainly are not — and I’d be interested on taking the over at 9.5 if the odds were to be adjusted. Yes, there are concerns at wide receiver and on the interior defensive line, but this team has three possible first-rounders on it (Fashanu, DE Chop Robinson and CB Kalen King), one of the most talented backfields in the country and a five-star quarterback. A home game against Iowa might be the toughest non-Michigan or Ohio State game. My model has the Nittany Lions as double-digit favorites in every game outside of those two.