After Monday night, there will be no more college football games. We have, at least for a while, reached the end of the road.
Endings are never easy, and this one is particularly tough. The good news?
Spring football essentially starts in a month, and we have a dazzling game to end the season.
We have Michigan; we have Washington. The two teams are constructed very differently, and neither lost a game this year.
Here at Locks of the Week, we're ready to break down this magnificent game in earnest.
Oh, we have plays.
We hope you enjoyed these picks against the spread all season. Like college football, we will be back.
Without further delay, here's how we're betting the national championship.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Michigan (-4.5) vs. Washington
First, an admission.
Michigan was my pick to win the national championship before the season began—before a second scandal broke out that consumed the sporting world.
As such, there is likely some natural bias here. I like being right a lot more than I like being wrong. And while I can survey this game objectively, that is an important piece of information to deliver before we move forward.
For what it's worth, I also bet Michael Penix Jr. to win the Heisman before the season began. That reality was not to be, although after watching him dazzle against Texas in the playoff, it's hard not to look at that outcome a little differently.
Either way, both of these teams belong. They have proven it time and time again. The question now, of course, is which style will prevail.
For Washington, the formula is simple. Protect the quarterback and let him work. This was the formula that worked so well against Texas, which struggled mightily to apply pressure.
Penix delivered one beautiful throw after the next, unleashing one of the greatest games we've seen from an individual player in the playoffs. The Huskies' offensive line was superb, as was the play-calling.
And Washington still could have lost. Let's not forget that. Lost in the Penix hysteria was the fact that a bizarre rule and untimely injury gave Texas one last chance, and it nearly delivered.
For Michigan, it was taken to the brink by Alabama as well. A slew of special teams blunders nearly upended the Wolverines, although they ultimately found a way.
The combination of running back Blake Corum and quarterback J.J. McCarthy proved to be a bit too much. And this will unquestionably be the formula Michigan goes with again.
Jim Harbaugh's game plan is pretty straight forward. Control the ball, drain the clock and keep the ball out of Penix's hands. Long, sustained drives are exactly what this kind of game needs.
As such, expect Corum to carry the ball north of 25 times in his final collegiate game. Washington allowed Texas to average 6.4 yards per carry; that is a concerning number entering this matchup.
Defensively, Michigan's assignment will be to generate pressure on Penix and provide better coverage on the back end. They are more equipped to do this with Texas, having better players and more depth at the position, although that doesn't mean it will be easy.
Penix is special. And while we've seen him struggle at times this year, there is no better quarterback in the country when things are going well. Having an elite group of wideouts to throw to, headlined by Rome Odunze, helps as well.
Ultimately, the Wolverines will find a way to pressure Penix just enough and control the football. They still will win out, and as such they will win the game. (And cover.)
Washington vs. Michigan (Under 56)
If you like Washington, you are likely to be on the over. If you like Michigan, it feels like the opposite will be true.
Michigan does not want this game to be a shootout. In fact, that type of matchup will likely result in a Huskies win. No, Michigan wants to sit on the football, force a few punts and control the game.
Given the stance taken above, that's where I am settling on the total. Although there will be points scored, there will be fewer than many expect.
Michigan 27, Washington 20.
J.J. McCarthy Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Corum isn't the only one likely to be busy on the ground. With so much emphasis likely to be put on the running back, it would behoove Michigan to get its QB in motion.
Against Alabama, McCarthy ran for 25 yards on only three carries. Expect those opportunities to increase. And expect McCarthy's legs to be a force throughout.
Blake Corum First Touchdown Scorer (+350)
He is a massive chalk, although there's a good bit of reasoning why. In terms of assembling how this game will flow, much revolves around McCarthy and Corum.
And when they get in the red zone, Corum will ultimately be the one doing the heavy lifting. This isn't tremendous value, although we're perfectly fine with it.
*Odds, lines and betting splits refresh periodically and are subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (select parishes), MA, MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at . DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.
Gambling problem? Crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).
