The wildfires that ripped through Hawaii on Tuesday and Wednesday are “unnerving,” and comparable to the landscape-altering wildfires that are common in the West, said Erica Fleishman, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University.
But Fleishman told CNN she wouldn’t be surprised “if wildfires in many parts of the world that are not accustomed to them become more common over time, or become larger or spread more rapidly.”
That’s because the human-caused climate crisis has exacerbated the hot and dry conditions that allow wildfires to ignite and grow in many parts of the planet.
Although she said it’s hard to say that the climate crisis is linked to this particular event without a thorough analysis, it is possible to break down the conditions that primed the environment for these wildfires to occur.
“We can say there are conditions that are consistent with wildfire, wildfire size and expansion that are changing as climate changes,” she said. “And some of the things that we're seeing with this wildfire in Maui are consistent with some of the trends that are known and projected as climate changes.”
Temperatures are increasing worldwide, including in Hawaii, while drought is getting more intense and lasting longer. As a result, Fleishman said the availability of water has not only decreased for people, but also plants that require more water to thrive.
And in parts of Hawaii, there have been drastic changes in plant species.
A 2018 report from the Hawaii Wildfire Management Organization found that humans have introduced nonnative, fire-prone grasses and shrubs to the islands, which has allowed wildfire threat to increase exponentially. Nonnative species, which are critical fire ignitions, now cover nearly a quarter of Hawaii’s total land area.
Wind patterns are another contributing factor that may have some fingerprints of climate change, Fleishman said. High winds, such as the ones that helped fan the flames in Maui, are more likely going to dry out vegetation, air and soil, which could spark wildfires.
“When those strong winds hit, if you already have the heat and the dryness and if you have a spark, a wildfire becomes more likely to grow rapidly,” she added.
While it is uncommon for fires this size to ignite in places like Hawaii, Fleishman said she is hopeful that these places will have some time to prepare for a hotter and drier future that is prime for far more intense wildfires.
