As I start my fourth season covering the Ottawa Senators for The Athletic, there is one element of this job that I haven’t quite mastered.
The preseason predictions column has become my personal nemesis, exploiting my flaws and clearly highlighting my inability to peer into the future.
In case you’ve forgotten my ineptitude in this space, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane.
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Heading into the 2020-21 season, I predicted Matt Murray would appear in 40 games for the Senators. (Keep in mind, that was going into a 56-game season, so I was clearly just learning the nuances of how these bold predictions work.)
The following season, I predicted no Ottawa player would hit the 30-goal plateau. (I was wrong, as both Josh Norris and Brady Tkachuk got there.)
And going into 2022-23, I called for an Alex DeBrincat contract extension. (Yikes.)
So, have I learned anything about how these bold predictions work?
Of course not.
But that’s not stopping me from submitting a whole new set of 10 bold predictions for the Senators ahead of the 2023-24 season.
Feel free to drop your own predictions for the season into the comment section below. We can come back in a few months and revisit how we all fared.
10. The Senators will finish in the top half of NHL attendance
The Senators have been low-hanging fruit for attendance-related jokes over the past few seasons. And when you look at the recent attendance figures at Canadian Tire Centre, it’s been hard to dispute those wisecracks.
Senators home attendance
| Season | Avg. Attendance | League Rank |
|---|---|---|
2022-23 | 16.767 | 25th |
2021-22 | 10,145 | 31st |
2020-21 | N/A | N/A |
2019-20 | 12,618 | 31st |
2018-19 | 14,553 | 27th |
2017-18 | 15,829 | 24th |
2016-17 | 16,744 | 21st |
But things are certainly on the upswing in Ottawa and you’ll see tangible proof at the box office this season. We probably won’t be back to the absolute peak of attendance in Ottawa — like when they finished third in the league by averaging 19,821 in 2007-08 — but we might see something closer to the 18,000 range on a nightly basis.
Last season, the Edmonton Oilers were the middle-of-the-pack team, finishing 16th in attendance by averaging 17,838 fans per home game at Rogers Place. If the Senators can get into that range this season, they can finish in the top half of league attendance for the first time in exactly a decade. The last time Ottawa cracked the top half was in 2013-14 when they finished 14th by averaging 18,109 fans at home.
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The excitement surrounding Michael Andlauer’s ownership and the core of this team being locked up and ready to compete for a playoff spot should provide the perfect blueprint for packed houses at the Canadian Tire Centre.
9. We won’t have clarity on a downtown arena before the end of the regular season
While we’re on the subject of attendance and arenas, let me predict that we won’t have total clarity on the Senators’ future arena by the time the regular season closes in April.
This process has dragged on for several years and there doesn’t appear to be a sense of urgency from any of the parties involved. If anything, Andlauer is likely going to take a calm, patient approach when it comes to determining the location of the new arena. Combine Andlauer’s mindset with the methodical nature of government officials in Ottawa and I think you’ve got a perfect storm for this to get pushed into next summer.
In the meantime, prepare yourselves for posturing from everybody involved.
8. Both Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg will appear in at least 35 games each
The Senators used a franchise-record seven different goalies last season. (That Magnus Hellberg cameo seems like a fever dream now.)
But the Senators are banking on a lot more stability in their crease in 2023-24. Joonas Korpisalo will start the season as the No. 1 goaltender, but Anton Forsberg won’t be too far behind. This really feels like a 1/1A situation in Ottawa’s net rather than a traditional starter/backup tandem. And considering Korpisalo has never played in 40 games in an NHL season before, all signs are pointing toward shared duties in the crease.
Both goalies posted shutouts in their final preseason tuneups, finally giving D.J. Smith a glimpse of capable and stable goaltending.
The good news for Ottawa fans?
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In the six previous instances in which Ottawa had two goalies appear in at least 35 games apiece, the Senators qualified for the playoffs each time.
Goalies playing 35+ games in same season
| Season | Goalie Workload (GP) | Team Finish |
|---|---|---|
2016-17 | Craig Anderson (40), Mike Condon (40) | 98 points |
2005-06 | Dominik Hasek (43), Ray Emery (39) | 113 points |
1999-00 | Ron Tugnutt (44), Patrick Lalime (38) | 95 points |
1998-99 | Damian Rhodes (45), Ron Tugnutt (43) | 103 points |
1997-98 | Damian Rhodes (50), Ron Tugnutt (42) | 83 points |
1996-97 | Damian Rhodes (50), Ron Tugnutt (37) | 77 points |
You would think I’d be scared of making goalie-related predictions before each season, but clearly, I haven’t learned my lesson.
7. Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik will combine for exactly 44 goals
After losing Alex DeBrincat, the Senators opted to replace him in the lineup by acquiring a pair of talented wingers. Dominik Kubalik came over from Detroit as a direct return for DeBrincat, while Vladimir Tarasenko signed a one-year, $5 million deal as a free agent at the end of July.
Did the Senators need both of them? I suppose we’ll get the answer to that question in the weeks and months ahead.
But it’s always fun to be hyper specific with some predictions, so here goes: Tarasenko and Kubalik will combine to score exactly 44 goals for Ottawa this season. Maybe it’s 25 for Tarasenko and 19 for Kubalik. Or 30 from one guy and 14 from the other.
Either way, my crystal ball is telling me this duo is going to combine for 44 goals.
6. The most fun, entertaining and wild game of the regular season will happen on Dec. 23
I have a feeling we’re going to see that dormant Ottawa-Pittsburgh rivalry erupt again this season. And it’s going to spill over again when the Penguins visit Canadian Tire Centre on Dec. 23.
In case you need a refresher on this rivalry, here’s a quick recap:
Andy Sutton once delivered a thunderous hit on Jordan Leopold in a playoff game, which in turn created one of the greatest media scrums of all time.
Matt Cooke injured Erik Karlsson’s Achilles tendon, leading to a forensic investigation in 2013.
At its peak, the rivalry was so heated it even caused two of the classiest players in Sidney Crosby and Nick Foligno to get into a war of words.
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We can’t forget that a Senators-Penguins playoff game was also the backdrop for the appearance of Gladiator Guy.
(And there’s something about a Chris Kunitz goal, but we’re not putting the link to that in here.)
Both the Senators and Penguins have playoff aspirations, which should make all three of their regular-season meetings feel consequential. And the Dec. 23 game at Canadian Tire Centre will mark the first time Karlsson rolls into Ottawa wearing a Penguins sweater. It’s also the last game before the Christmas holiday break and it feels like the perfect storm for an entertaining and energetic evening.
And extra fun fact: Dec. 23 will also mark the exact 10-year anniversary of this Marc Methot hip check on Sidney Crosby. (And I’m sure if Methot is in the building that night, he might also bring up this incident with Crosby.)
5. Three Ottawa defencemen will finish the season with at least 40 points
For once, there is legitimate hope and optimism around Ottawa’s blue line. With a top four featuring Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub, there is finally a feeling that Ottawa’s defence corps is a strength.
And the Senators should expect to see some offence coming from their talented defencemen this season, which is why I’m predicting that Chabot, Chychrun and Sanderson will all eclipse the 40-point mark in 2023-24. The Senators have never had three defencemen hit the 40-point plateau in the same season, so this would be a very unique situation for the Senators. The last time Ottawa had two defencemen with 40 points in the same season was in 2005-06, from Wade Redden (50) and Zdeno Chara (43).
And this has only happened a handful of times in the salary-cap era.
Three defencemen with 40+ points
| Season | Team | Defencemen |
|---|---|---|
2008-09 | Detroit Red Wings | Nicklas Lidstrom (59), Brian Rafalski (51), Niklas Kronwall (51) |
2008-09 | San Jose Sharks | Dan Boyle (57), Rob Blake (45), Christian Ehrhoff (42) |
2008-09 | Chicago Blackhawks | Brian Campbell (52), Duncan Keith (44), Cam Barker (40) |
2014-15 | Calgary Flames | Dennis Wideman (56), Mark Giordano (48), T.J. Brodie (41) |
2015-16 | Calgary Flames | Mark Giordano (56), T.J. Brodie (45), Dougie Hamilton (43) |
2018-19 | Nashville Predators | Roman Josi (56), Mattias Ekholm (44), Ryan Ellis (41) |
2022-23 | Edmonton Oilers | Darnell Nurse (43), Tyson Barrie (43), Evan Bouchard (40) |
But all three defencemen should get some looks on Ottawa’s power play this season. And if Chabot looks better with reduced minutes, Chychrun stays healthy and Sanderson pushes his offensive ceiling, there is absolutely a path to all three of them reaching 40 points.
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4. Brady Tkachuk will finish the season with more points than penalty minutes
This might actually qualify as my boldest prediction heading into the season. Just consider what Tkachuk’s point totals have looked like when measured against his penalty minutes over the first five seasons of his NHL career.
Brady Tkachuk by season
| Season | Points | PIM | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
2018-19 | 45 | 75 | 30 |
2019-20 | 44 | 106 | 62 |
2020-21 | 36 | 69 | 33 |
2021-22 | 67 | 117 | 50 |
2022-23 | 83 | 126 | 43 |
The closest he’s come to having more points than penalty minutes was in his rookie campaign. And even that wasn’t really close.
But that’s going to change in 2023-24. The Senators will need their captain in the penalty box on fewer occasions. I don’t think you’ll ever change Tkachuk’s protective mentality, so we should still expect him to drop the gloves a few times when he thinks it’s warranted. But this will be the season in which his offensive game continues to grow while his time spent in the penalty box declines.
My bold prediction for Tkachuk?
Points: 88
PIM: 84
3. A player will have a four-goal game for Ottawa
There’s a good chance you remember Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s four-goal game in the playoffs for Ottawa in 2017.
But do you remember the last time a Senators player scored four goals in a regular-season game?
How about Alexei Kovalev on January 3, 2010, against the Philadelphia Flyers? (If you don’t recall that, perhaps Kovalev’s moonwalk celebration rings a bell.)
A 13-year gap is a pretty long drought when you consider players like Rocco Grimaldi, Andrew Copp, Zach Sanford, Mark Jankowski and Brad Richardson have all enjoyed four-goal games in the regular season since Kovalev’s performance for Ottawa.
The Senators have a ton of offensive talent, so here’s betting that one of those slick forwards enjoys a four-goal game this season. And just for fun, I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Kubalik as the guy who does it for Ottawa. (And if this happens on Dec. 23 against Pittsburgh, I think I deserve some bonus points.)
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2. Claude Giroux will hit the 50-assist mark
Last season was a renaissance year for Claude Giroux, who set a career high with 35 goals at the age of 35.
So, what does he do for an encore?
I’m going to predict Giroux hits the 50-assist mark for the first time in five years. The last time he racked up that many helpers was in 2018-19, when he notched 63 assists.
And for a little bit of context, only a handful of players have been able to reach the 50-assist plateau in a season in which they were 36 or older over the past decade.
50-assist seasons over the age of 36
| Season | Player (Age) | Assists |
|---|---|---|
2022-23 | Evgeni Malkin (36) | 56 |
2021-22 | Joe Pavelski (37) | 54 |
2016-17 | Henrik Zetterberg (36) | 51 |
2015-16 | Joe Thornton (36) | 63 |
2011-12 | Ray Whitney (39) | 53 |
(Daniel Alfredsson managed to accomplish this feat twice after turning 36, including a 51-assist season at the age of 37 in 2009-10.)
1. Tim Stützle and the Senators will finish the season with the exact same number of points
And now let’s end with a hyper-specific prediction that ties in Tim Stützle’s individual success.
I’m going to say Stützle will finish this season with the exact same number of points as the Senators. This almost happened last season: Stützle finished the 2022-23 campaign with 90 points and the Senators wound up with 86.
Strangely, this has only happened on two previous occasions in franchise history.
The last time a Senators player finished his season with the exact same number of points as the team was in 2006-07 when both Dany Heatley and Ottawa had 105 points. It also happened in the franchise’s inaugural season, when the team finished with a paltry 24 points — the exact same number produced by both Neil Brady and Mark Freer.
I’m betting Stützle and the Senators have a finish that more closely mirrors Heatley in 2006-07 than Brady and Freer in 1992-93.
So for my final prediction, I’m going to say both Stützle and the Senators finish the 2023-24 regular season with 99 points.
(Photo of Tim Stützle moving the puck against Sidney Crosby: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
