In the previous three NCAA tournaments, No. 3 seeds were 8-4 straight up against No. 14 seeds but just the reverse at 4-8 against the spread. The Baylor Bears begin this season's Big Dance festivities as a No. 3 against No. 14 New Mexico State on Friday afternoon in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Why New Mexico State can cover the spread
New Mexico State won its last two regular-season games to finish 11-3 and tied for second place in the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies won three games in three days to take the conference tournament title, coming from behind to beat top-seeded Cal State Bakersfield 70-60 in the championship game last Saturday.
Down by 13 points early in the second half in that tilt, New Mexico State used a 21-1 run to take a lead it would never relinquish. The Aggies are back at the Big Dance for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
New Mexico State is shooting 47 percent from the floor and averaging 79 points per game, with four players averaging in double figures. At the other end of the court, the Aggies are holding foes to just 41 percent field-goal shooting and have out-rebounded seven of their last 10 opponents.
Why Baylor can cover the spread
Baylor won its last two games during the regular season to finish 12-6 and tied for second in the tough Big 12 conference. Unfortunately, the Bears lost to Kansas State in the opener of their conference tournament last Thursday 70-64.
Still, with its at-large bid, Baylor is playing in the NCAA tournament for the fourth year in a row.
On the season the Bears are shooting 47 percent from the field while holding opponents to just under 40 percent shooting. They've also won the battle on the boards in nine of their last 10 games.
Smart betting pick
Baylor is 11-6 SU and 9-7 ATS against teams that made the NCAA tournament this season. New Mexico State, on the other hand, hasn't yet played a Big Dance qualifier this season. And that's a major difference in their battle preparedness. The smart money here bets on the Bears.
March Madness betting trends
Baylor is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
The total has gone under in New Mexico State's last five games as an underdog.
New Mexico State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog of 12 points or more.
