At his introductory news conference with the Twins on Wednesday, Carlos Correa called his free agency “an emotional roller coaster.” He’s likely far from the only one who felt that way about it. Imagine being Eduardo Escobar.
Over a few weeks, Escobar went from being the Mets’ third baseman to not being the Mets’ third baseman back to being the Mets’ third baseman.
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In his first year with the Mets, Escobar bounced back from an uncharacteristically poor first half of 2022 to produce a team-best .982 OPS in September/October. He entered the offseason as the team’s third baseman. Then in December, the Mets courted Correa. They reached an agreement on a lengthy deal with Correa that would’ve made him the Mets’ third baseman and relegated Escobar to uncertainty. Three weeks passed. A deal never got finalized because of medical concerns. Correa moved on to the Twins. Now, Escobar is again the Mets’ third baseman.
Club sources say they’ve heard only positive things from Escobar about the situation and outcome. No hard feelings. Around the team, some people share multiple sentiments. There’s some disappointment, sure, for not landing someone like Correa. As one person said, “What team wouldn’t want to add another talented player, if they were able to do so?” But there’s also an appreciation for Escobar.
If the Mets had signed Correa, there was a distinct possibility Escobar would have been traded, multiple sources said. People around the Mets are happy to still have him. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Escobar, a 12-year veteran, has a reputation for being a good teammate. As one evaluator put it, “If (the Mets) had to move him in a trade, it was not going to be hard.”
The Mets would have had one of the best all-around options, particularly offensively, at third base if they signed Correa. Over the last two years, Correa has a .842 OPS — the third basemen in that period with a better OPS are just Austin Riley (.887), Rafael Devers (.885), Jose Ramírez (.881), Manny Machado (.867) and Nolan Arenado (.848). Correa is better than what the Mets have. But what they have isn’t bad.
The way a couple of evaluators see it, Escobar, 34, should have at least another solid season. There was always added motivation, too, beyond the Correa saga. Escobar’s contract is not guaranteed beyond 2023. The Mets hold a $9 million club option on him for 2024. Entering the final guaranteed year of his contract plus the entirety of the offseason situation is enough incentive for Escobar to perform more consistently than he did in 2023. And people around the Mets think he can, particularly from the left side, citing the switch hitter’s consistency over the prior handful of years and better numbers down the stretch in 2022. From 2018-21, excluding the shortened 2020 season, Escobar averaged 28 home runs, and his lowest OPS+ was 109 in 2021.
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Even in a down year in 2022, Escobar still posted respectable numbers: 20 home runs, 69 RBIs, 106 wRC+, .726 OPS and 2.3 fWAR. FanGraphs projects Escobar in 2023 to have 17 home runs, 61 RBIs, 100 wRC+ .697 OPS and 1.5 fWAR.
The hope from the Mets’ side is that Escobar has a good season — and then Brett Baty, the top-rated infield prospect, steps in.
Baty is said to be a full go for spring training after thumb surgery late last season. He is the kind of prospect with the talent to make things interesting. Evaluators say he’s good enough to raise some tough roster questions. In addition to third base, Baty has also played left field in the minor leagues. With so many Mets infielders expected to participate in the World Baseball Classic, Baty should be in line for increased playing time during spring training games. The issue is, it’d be hard for the Mets to place Baty on their roster initially — they also have Luis Guillorme as an infielder — because there isn’t a clear path for consistent playing time.
In the outlook for prospect playing time, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio shouldn’t be counted out, either. Similar to those two, defense is a question for Baty. He has to get to the point where he is trusted defensively. But there’s a belief around the Mets that Baty continues to put work in and improve.
It’d be tough from a developmental perspective to carry Baty on the roster and just play him a couple of times a week. Even DH doesn’t sound like an initial fit for Baty, a left-handed batter, because the Mets may opt to again go with left-handed batter Daniel Vogelbach, who last season slashed .261/.382/.497 with 18 home runs against RHPs, in the strong side of a platoon. There is some possibility the Mets go with three catchers and have Francisco Alvarez, their best prospect, occasionally catch while seeing time at DH against lefties. A lot of that depends on Alvarez. A few things — playing time for prospects, how good the Mets’ lineup will be — also depend on whether the Mets again look to add someone to their lineup.
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The Mets’ lineup is identical to the one it had at the end of last season. Until the trade deadline this summer, it will be worth remembering that Mets owner Steve Cohen said Correa was the missing piece his team needed, the one more thing. On Wednesday, the Mets issued a 13-word statement that read, “We were unable to reach an agreement. We wish Carlos all the best.” New York won 101 games last season with an offense that finished in the top five in several categories, including wRC+ (116, third in baseball). It’s just that, at important times down the stretch, the Mets’ offense fizzled. Another bat would help. It’s unclear what the Mets’ next move will be and when it will occur. A source familiar with the team’s thinking says they have an interest in at least adding a right-handed batting fourth outfielder.
For now, at least, it’s safe to say that Escobar is the Mets’ third baseman. Again. The Correa saga is behind him. Prospects aren’t far away. A contract year is in front of him. It’s a big year for Escobar — and it’s one that became all the more interesting.
(Photo: Brett Davis / USA Today)
