It’s too early to know how the Boston Celtics will play this season. They won’t open training camp for more than a month. They won’t begin the preseason until Oct. 8. This time of the year, Joe Mazzulla visits TD Garden to watch UFC fights, not coach basketball games.
The basketball isn’t too far away, though. And it’s never too early to guess how the Celtics will play. Here are five areas in which I expect them to make some changes.
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1. Man-to-man defensive strategies
Mazzulla hasn’t detailed how he intends to change the defense this season, but it stands to reason the Celtics will adapt their style at least somewhat after trading Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porziņģis. They swapped one of the league’s most switchable perimeter players for a 7-foot-3 interior force. Porziņģis can move his feet a little bit, especially for his size, but he’s best at ruining an opponent’s plans near the rim. When he plays next to Robert Williams or Al Horford, like he should much of the time, the Celtics will be extremely tall. Their defensive strategies should shift to take advantage of that.
They ranked second in the league in blocks per game during the 2021-22 season. They have even more shot blocking now. As a basketball nerd, I find it fun that the Celtics hired Charles Lee after he spent five seasons on the Bucks’ staff. With Porziņģis, Williams and Horford, Boston could probably benefit from stealing some of the principles that allowed Milwaukee to build such dominant defenses around Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Lopez has become one of the best interior defenders in the league; it’s probably not a coincidence that his block rate shot up as soon as he worked in the Bucks system and with the Bucks coaches. The Celtics bigs aren’t identical to the Milwaukee big men as players but should give their team a similar advantage in sheer length and rim protection. The Bucks have ranked in the top five in preventing shot attempts inside of four feet for five straight seasons; they built everything around their ability to prevent those shots. The Celtics won’t want to do everything Milwaukee did but could take some bits and pieces. I’m sure Mazzulla will enjoy devising ways to maximize all of the large men on his roster.
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2. Zone usage
The Celtics dabbled in zone defense a bit in summer league, perhaps foreshadowing a new tool they intend to use. They haven’t typically played a lot of zone defense in the recent past while loaded with great man-to-man defenders. They still have a long list of capable defenders, but their bench could have a few targets for opposing teams. Zone defense could be a way to hide any weak links or just a wrinkle to keep teams off balance. It could be one way to weaponize the size of Porziņģis, Horford and Williams. The Wizards used a fair amount of zone defense with Porziņģis last season.
Now in his second season, Mazzulla could feel freer to unleash more creativity. He will have a full offseason to tinker with new ideas and implement tweaks that could go a long way. Other teams, especially the Heat, have used zone to keep opponents out of a rhythm. I think the Celtics will join that movement.
3. Horford’s role
Horford’s a proud, competitive guy. Though he’s as team-oriented as anyone, he would probably hate the idea of playing fewer minutes. He has done an incredible job of adapting late in his career to overcome whatever athleticism he has lost.
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But the 37-year-old has lost athleticism. Though he’s still nimble enough to switch onto guards, age has shown up in other parts of his game. His ability to nail shots from outside the arc has allowed him to remain effective, but the rest of his scoring nearly disappeared. He tried just 85 shots from inside of five feet after attempting 145 shots from that range the previous season. He attempted 21 free throws throughout the entire regular season before producing only four more during the playoffs. He went 18 straight games during one stretch without going to the line. Only once — all season long! — did he shoot more than two free throws in a single game. Part of that came from the way the Celtics used him, primarily as a floor spacer, but they likely would have expanded his responsibilities if they believed he could still do everything else. At the other end of the court, he averaged the fewest combined steals and blocks per 100 possessions of his career. He remains a very good player because he’s Al Horford, basketball genius, doer of nothing but helpful things. Still, his physical gifts have begun to fade.
I’m not saying the Celtics will turn Horford into an end-of-the-bench towel waver. He should remain a big part of their plans. They want to play bigger lineups when they’re fully healthy, and he will be critical to that vision. I just think his days of averaging 30 minutes per game should be numbered, especially with the Boston frontcourt now featuring Porziņģis as well as Williams (and the latter won’t be coming off offseason surgery like he was last season). It could help Horford to handle a lighter load. Boston will need him fresh in the playoffs, when he will still likely be the team’s best option defending Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid.
I could be wrong about Horford again. I questioned two seasons ago whether he could still handle the power forward position, and he did so in one of the NBA’s best lineups. He will put in all the work to be as ready as possible for however many minutes he’ll need to play.
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4. Pace
The Celtics ranked 22nd in average time to shot last season, according to Inpredictable, then traded the player most likely to find a teammate early in the shot clock. They found transition opportunities much more regularly with Smart on the court over each of the last four seasons, as Cleaning the Glass’ data shows. His assists to a cutting Jaylen Brown were reminders of how much Smart liked to look ahead on the break.
Adding Porziņģis, for all of his strengths, could make the Celtics one of the league’s slowest-paced teams. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. They ranked third in half-court offensive efficiency last season, and the Porziņģis addition could increase their chances of climbing even higher on that list. Eight of the top-10 offenses last season ranked 14th or lower in frequency of transition opportunities; frantic isn’t always best. Still, the Celtics will miss some of the easy baskets Smart created for them. Even with him, they gradually produced fewer and fewer transition opportunities over the past four seasons.
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5. Derrick White’s place in the closing lineup
This feels like cheating because it’s so obvious. Oh well. With Smart gone, the Celtics should never leave White on the bench during crunchtime. They probably shouldn’t have done it last season, either. Though he did close games sometimes, he was the odd man out on other occasions even though the team normally played much better with him in the lineup.
There’s a significant gap between White and his backup, Malcolm Brogdon, as two-way players. White should always be one of the closers. He has earned that.
(Top photo of Al Horford: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
