ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — With as animated a demeanor as he has had in public since becoming Broncos general manager, George Paton last week used words like “embarrassing” and “unacceptable” to describe a disastrous 51-14 loss to the Rams in Los Angeles on Christmas Day. It was a performance so unfathomable that the team’s new ownership group felt it couldn’t wait two more weeks to season’s end before firing first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
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But for all that happened leading up to that point during one of the most frustrating seasons in team history — coaching failures, underwhelming individual performances, lack of success in close games — Paton said the fault lands on him.
“I take full responsibility for where we are as a football team,” Paton said. “I brought in the head coach and I brought in most of the players. Those are my decisions and there’s no one to blame but me.”
Paton is correct that he has constructed the majority of the current roster. As of Thursday, 35 players on the active list were either drafted, signed during free agency or acquired via trade by Paton — and that doesn’t include previous-regime holdovers such as Justin Simmons and Courtland Sutton, to whom Paton handed massive extensions before they could hit unrestricted free agency. Paton and his front-office staff also acquired 15 of the 20 players currently on the injured-reserve list.
Paton in relatively short order has reshaped a roster handed down by former chief football executive John Elway that was responsible for the first five seasons in a streak of playoff-less campaigns that has now reached seven. There were significant holes to be fixed, from quarterback to the defensive line. When Paton cut cornerback Michael Ojemudia last Tuesday, hours after that fiery press conference, only three players out of the 10-man class Elway drafted in 2020 remained on the active roster. Among those, only wide receiver Jerry Jeudy is a starter. That underscores the heavy burden that has fallen on Paton, who made 10 different trades during his first 10 months on the job, including the blockbuster deal that sent face-of-the-franchise linebacker Von Miller to the Rams for a pair of draft picks.
That flurry of moves laid the foundation for the four massive, potentially career-defining decisions Paton made to begin the second year of his tenure: the firing of Vic Fangio as head coach, the hiring of Hackett as Fangio’s replacement, the splashy free-agency signing of outside linebacker Randy Gregory and the trade acquisition of nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson.
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Hackett is now unemployed, becoming just the second first-time coach in the NFL since 1978 to be fired before the completion of his first season. Wilson is having the worst season of his 11-year career. Gregory is ending the season on IR after an injury-plagued first year in Denver. And the Broncos are assured of their sixth straight losing season and second in a row since Paton took office.
There is no arguing that Paton’s marquee moves, at least to this point, have not panned out. The team has maintained public confidence in both Paton and Wilson and has expressed belief it will hire the right coach to finally return a winning culture to the Broncos, but a frustrated fan base has taken a “show me, don’t tell me” posture in the wake of those claims.
“We have a foundation in place where if we get the right head coach and we make some sound moves on the personnel end, we can turn this thing around,” Paton said.
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Just how significant a hand Paton will have in decision-making going forward remains to be seen. CEO Greg Penner said the head coach the Broncos hire next will report directly to him and not Paton, leaving open the possibility — if not the likelihood — that the new coach will be given final say over the 53-man roster. In any event, Paton will reach his two-year anniversary on the job later this month, making it an appropriate time to evaluate how he has shaped Denver’s roster and the hand he played in 2022’s disaster.
What follows is a closer look at Paton’s work in four categories: the NFL Draft, free agency, the trade market and coaching decisions.
Draft
Paton and his staff selected 19 players across their first two drafts, led by 2021 first-round cornerback Pat Surtain II, who was recently named to his first Pro Bowl team as a starter. Eleven of those players remain on Denver’s active roster. Three more of Paton’s draft picks — running back Javonte Williams, safety Caden Sterns and tight end Greg Dulcich — are on injured reserve, and seventh-round rookie cornerback Faion Hicks is on the practice squad. Four of the drafted players, all from the 2021 class, are no longer with the team at all: safety Jamar Johnson (fifth round), wide receiver Seth Williams (sixth), cornerback Kary Vincent (seventh) and defensive lineman Marquiss Spencer (seventh).
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Six of the 22 position starters in the loss to the Rams on Christmas Day were Paton draft picks. Williams was the team’s starting running back before he went down with a major knee injury in Week 4, fifth-round rookie Montrell Washington was the team’s main return man all season before being benched Sunday, and defensive rookies Nik Bonitto (second round), Matt Henningsen (sixth) and, to a lesser extent, Eyioma Uwazurike (fourth) have been rotational reserves throughout the season.
There is one obvious home run among the bunch. Surtain has already developed into one of the NFL’s best outside cornerbacks and has the look of a perennial Pro Bowl and All-Pro talent. We’ll get to Paton’s decision not to use his first draft pick on quarterback Justin Fields in a moment, but the bottom line is Paton’s first-ever draft pick as a general manager is a clear cornerstone piece.
Evaluating the rest of the class might take more time, though there have been encouraging developments. Williams, a second-round pick in 2021, nearly rushed for 1,000 yards as a rookie despite sharing the backfield with veteran Melvin Gordon. He figured to be a central figure in Denver’s offense this season — he had 253 all-purpose yards in his three full games played — before suffering a knee injury that will require a significant recovery timeline. The third-rounders in the 2021 draft, offensive guard Quinn Meinerz and outside linebacker Baron Browning, have become starters this season — the trade of Bradley Chubb opened that door for Browning — and look like potential long-term fixtures. Paton’s third-round pick this season, Dulcich, has been the best first-year player at his position since making his debut in Week 6 following an offseason hamstring injury.
There have also been some solid contributions from Day 3 selections. Most notable among those is 2022 fourth-rounder Damarri Mathis out of the University of Pittsburgh, who has played every defensive snap for the Broncos since veteran Ronald Darby suffered his season-ending ACL injury in a Week 5 loss to the Colts. Mathis has rebounded nicely following a rocky, flag-filled starting debut against the Chargers in October, and he could be in line to become the permanent starter in 2023 with Darby having no guaranteed money left on the three-year deal he signed in free agency in 2021. Outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper has started 13 of the 29 games he has played in the past two seasons and has tallied 4 1/2 sacks and six tackles for loss, making him among the most productive seventh-round picks from his ’21 class.
There are question marks elsewhere. Bonitto has struggled in his first NFL season. He has 1 1/2 sacks but has not taken down the quarterback since Oct. 30, and he has had issues at times setting an edge in the run game. Paton said before the draft that the trade of Wilson — and the reduced draft-pick resources that resulted from it — increased the importance of hitting on picks outside the first round. It’s too early to label the Bonitto pick a miss, but the Broncos need to see improvement from the No. 64 selection.
Paton’s tenure has also included an odd streak for the Broncos. Denver has not drafted an offensive tackle since taking Garett Bolles with the 20th overall pick in 2017, which includes two drafts under Paton that haven’t targeted that position. Meinerz has been arguably the Broncos’ most consistent offensive lineman since the midway point of the 2021 season, and the Broncos threw another dart at an interior line piece when they selected Luke Wattenberg with a fifth-round pick in this past draft. But the Broncos are heading into an offseason with left guard Dalton Risner entering free agency, have no players under contract at right tackle and probably need an upgrade at center. Denver owns a late first-round pick by virtue of sending Chubb to the Dolphins in a midseason trade, and that could present a chance to add an immediate impact player up front, but the relatively minimal draft investment on the offensive line for the past few seasons has remained perplexing given Denver’s struggles in that department.
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Evaluating a team’s draft, particularly in the first round, also requires a look at what it didn’t do. The Broncos had a chance to select Fields, the current Bears quarterback, with the No. 9 overall pick. During his second season in Chicago, Fields has rushed for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns while improving his passer rating from 73.2 as rookie to 85.2 this season. Though Fields still has significant improvements to make as a pocket passer, he has the look of a potential star at the position. Asked after acquiring Wilson last March whether the desire to eventually trade for a veteran quarterback is what led him to not draft Fields, Paton said it was simpler than that.
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“Last year’s draft was about Patrick Surtain,” Paton said. “Our whole building fell in love with him, and we were going to take him no matter who was there. We thought he was one of the better players in the draft. In my position, you’re always thinking ahead, but at that moment right there, it was about Pat.”
The selection of Surtain ensured Paton got off to a strong as a chief draft decision-maker, and there has been other strong work in that department along the way. But the Broncos find themselves needing to nail another draft class in a big way in 2023 to continue climbing out of the hole they are in now.
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Free agency
The Broncos’ defense, arguably the most complete unit on that side of the ball the team has had since 2015, has been buoyed by the additions of three key free-agent pieces in defensive back K’Waun Williams, defensive tackle D.J. Jones and linebacker Alex Singleton. Paton signed all three in March, hoping their experience with playoff teams in 2021 would help infuse a winning edge into an already stout unit.
Williams had a game-clinching interception in an Oct. 30 win over the Jaguars and has been stout in coverage out of the nickel spot. Jones has been a reliable and durable run-stopper, starting 15 straight games before missing Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs with a knee injury. Singleton has tallied 152 tackles this season, according to Pro Football Reference, the most by a Broncos player since 2007, and he forced a fumble in Sunday’s game during a special teams play that led to a Denver touchdown. All three players have been significant contributors for a defense that enters Week 18 ranked sixth in opponent points per drive (1.68).
But just as his decisions to hire Hackett as head coach and trade for Wilson didn’t pan out in 2022, Paton’s biggest move in free agency was also a disappointment — at least in Year 1. Randy Gregory, who signed a five-year, $70 million deal in free agency, went on season-ending IR late last week, ending his first season in Denver with six games played, two sacks, two forced fumbles and a disheartening Christmas Day debacle in which he picked up two 15-yard penalties, was benched in the second half and then threw a punch after the game.
Here's a look at what happened after the game with #Broncos Randy Gregory and #Rams guard Oday Aboushi. #BroncosCountry @CBSNews
— Michael Spencer (@MichaelCBS4) December 26, 2022
There were significant concerns about Gregory’s availability heading into free agency this season. He had missed nearly three full seasons worth of games due to suspensions early in his career with the Cowboys, and he also dealt with various injuries when he was active. Gregory missed much of Denver’s offseason program as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, then he suffered a knee injury in a Week 4 loss to the Raiders. Though Gregory returned for a 24-15 win over the Cardinals on Dec. 18, he played just 34 total snaps across his final two games before landing on IR.
Paton’s top defensive free agent in 2021, Darby, has followed a similar trajectory. The veteran missed six games due to various injuries in 2021 and has missed all but five games this season after tearing his ACL in a Week 5 loss to the Colts. If Darby’s time in Denver ends after this season — he has no guaranteed money left on the deal — he’ll have played in 16 of a possible 33 games while failing to record an interception. Darby was signed the same year the Broncos handed veteran cornerback Kyle Fuller a one-year, $9.5 million deal that did not work out.
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The deal for Gregory came with $28 million in guaranteed money, including a $10 million signing bonus, according to Over The Cap. He has $14 million in guaranteed money due next season, but there are no guarantees on the final three years of the deal after that. The Broncos signed Gregory believing he would be a significant contributor for much more than two seasons, and Gregory has expressed confidence that he’ll return healthy ahead of next season.
“I want to be part of the solution,” he said.
The verdict is still out on Gregory, but the book has already been largely written on Paton’s offensive additions. Tom Compton and Billy Turner, two veterans signed to bolster the offensive line, have played in only eight combined games and have spent a total of three stints on IR or the physically unable to perform list. Mike Boone, the running back Paton signed in 2021, has been injured for most of his two seasons with the Broncos. Though tight ends Eric Saubert and Eric Tomlinson have been solid, durable additions and Cam Fleming has been a serviceable fill-in at both tackle spots, the general return from Paton’s offensive free-agent additions has been underwhelming.
Trades
As miserable as 2022 was for Wilson, a full accounting of the trade that brought him to Denver will take more time. The Broncos, by way of what they hope will be a triumphant coaching hire and other offseason adjustments, believe they can draw a performance out of Wilson in 2023 that will more closely align with how he produced in Seattle. Whether that is possible remains to be seen, but the Broncos reiterated late last month that their commitment to Wilson is a long-term play.
“You can go through the season, and you do see flashes,” Paton said. “He’ll be the first one to tell you he didn’t play up to his standard and didn’t play up to our standard. He needs to be better.”
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Other trades Paton made are at least tangentially related to the Wilson experiment. For example, Paton traded Von Miller to the Rams at the 2021 trade deadline in large part because he wanted more trade ammunition to use in a potential big swing for a franchise quarterback. When Paton gave up five picks to acquire Wilson in March, he noted that making the trade would have been difficult had he not had an extra second- and third-round pick by virtue of the Miller trade. Those picks essentially netted Bonitto and Dulcich in last spring’s draft.
Trading away Bradley Chubb in early November came about in part because the Broncos did not feel comfortable handing the pass rusher the same five-year, $112 million deal he quickly received from the Dolphins. But the huge haul the Broncos sent to Seattle in the Wilson deal also forced Paton to search for other ways to add assets, and that factored into the decision to part with one of the team’s best defensive players, a 2020 Pro Bowl selection who was off to an excellent start in Denver’s first eight games this year.
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“It’s no secret we need picks,” Paton said at the time of the trade, which netted the Broncos a late first-round selection by way of the 49ers. In order for that trade to work for the Broncos, they need to find a strong replacement for Chubb — either with the first-round selection itself or with the salary-cap space that isn’t going toward a Chubb extension. Otherwise, they have created a new problem in an attempt to patch up an old one.
The bottom line is that every other trade Paton has made — moves up and down the draft board, the Chubb deal, the 2021 trade for Teddy Bridgewater and even the Miller blockbuster — pale in comparison to the decision he made to bring Wilson to Denver. Fair or not, his legacy as a general manager will largely be determined by what comes next in the Broncos’ Wilson era.
The coaching decision
Perhaps the Broncos will storm back to relevance next season, Wilson will look like at least a top-15 quarterback and the seven-year playoff drought will end. Perhaps a sequence of events like that will show Paton last year simply did what a number of general managers before him have done: hire the wrong coach for the moment.
But if the Broncos do produce those kinds of elusive results next season, it will be in spite of the potential damage caused by another significant overhaul. Star safety Justin Simmons, who will play for his fifth coach in his eighth professional season in 2023, was candid about the impact all the coaching turnover has had on a locker room that keeps being forced to start over.
“It’s hard,” Simmons said. “It’s hard on culture. It’s hard on the building — not just the players — the building in general. You’re coming in with a whole new flow. That’s just the reality of it. Nobody really cares about that either. All anybody cares about is winning. All we care about is trying to find ways to win games and get back to what Broncos Country is deserving of and used to. I’m just really hoping for some wins.”
Paton won’t have the same role in the current coaching search that he had in the process that ended with the hiring of Hackett, a whirlwind, cross-country endeavor that saw Denver interview nine of its 10 candidates in person. Penner is leading this search. Though Paton will be “intimately involved with this process of looking for a new head coach,” according to Penner, he will not have final say. That is in large part the product of now reporting to an owner, something Paton wasn’t doing this time last year. But it would be impossible not to view the failed 15-game experiment with Hackett as another reason Paton’s power has been reduced.
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It would have been hard to imagine Paton being in this place just 10 months ago. The trade for Wilson was widely applauded. He had finally pulled the brake on the wildly spinning quarterback carousel. He had seemingly found a coach who could apply a more modern touch to the team’s sagging offense. His first draft class looked like a home run, and even with limited capital, fans were eager to see what he could do with the second one.
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One disaster of a season later, Paton is in a different spot. He has undoubtedly made strong moves during his two-year tenure, but it is impossible to ignore the sour results of his biggest decisions as general manager. The coaching search ahead will determine how significantly Paton will be leaned on to help clean it all up.
(Top photo of George Paton: Ron Chenoy / USA Today)
