The two best teams in Major League Baseball are playing each other in a series that has ramifications in the race for the No. 1 seed in the National League and, with it, the easiest path to the World Series.
Yeah, it's kind of a big deal.
With help from Ronald Acuña Jr.'s grand slam, Atlanta (88-45) drew first blood on Thursday in a four-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers (83-50). The gap between the two teams for the NL's top record and its accompanying first-round bye and home-field advantage stands at five games.
That's up from the four-game lead Atlanta carried into the series, but also down from the eight-game lead it held as recently as Aug. 3.
Having the NL's top seed didn't do the Dodgers much good in 2022. They bowed out of the playoffs in the first round. But in the American League, the Houston Astros showed how much of a difference having the No. 1 seed can make. With it, they went 6-1 at home en route to winning the whole dang thing.
It therefore matters whether the Dodgers or Atlanta claim the No. 1 seed, but a more enticing question is this: Which of them is more likely to represent the NL in the Fall Classic?
The Dodgers Are the Hotter Team
They say it's not how you start, but how you finish. Whoever they are, they must be loving the Dodgers right now.
All that talk and all those odds that hinted at a down year for the Dodgers now seems laughable. They're comically hot, with a 24-5 run through August in their immediate wake and a 44-17 record in 61 games since June 20.
Not that it wasn't already very good before all this, but the Dodgers offense has been clicking on every possible cylinder. It's produced 1.6 home runs and 6.0 runs per game since June 20, with "everyone" serving as the only suitable answer to the question of who's hot.
Getting their pitching on a consistent track had been the hard part, but not anymore. The Dodgers posted a 3.00 ERA in August, with Julio Urías, Bobby Miller, Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw carrying the rotation with a combined 3.08 ERA.
Rob Friedman @PitchingNinjaClayton Kershaw's ERA this Season: 2.48<br>Kershaw's Career ERA: 2.48<br><br>Kershaw's Career ERA (16 seasons) would lead the entire Majors in ERA this season by 0.12. <br><br>Never take for granted the greatness of Clayton Kershaw. 👑 <a href="">
The good omens don't stop there. Of the 12 teams that won at least 80 percent of their games in August before the Dodgers, eight eventually went to the World Series.
Atlanta Is the Better Team
Yet Atlanta is still the team with A) the superior record, B) the better odds to finish with the NL's best record and C) the better odds to win the NL pennant.
Despite going "only" 21-8 in August, Atlanta is 55-21 since June 3, and even the Dodgers can't match its offensive output. The team from Georgia leads the majors in every key category—runs, home runs, OPS and so on—and it has out-homered and outscored the Dodgers even since June 20.
Atlanta Braves @Braves🚨 RECORD ALERT 🚨<br><br>This Orlando Arcia dinger just set a new single-season franchise record for team HRs (250). <a href="">
Atlanta's only problem for a while was a rotation that came out of the All-Star break in a bit of a chill, but that's history. Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Max Fried teamed up for a 2.83 ERA in August, and Bryce Elder recovered from a rough start to the month to put up a 2.45 ERA in his last three outings.
The road ahead likewise favors Atlanta. As they have fewer players on the injured list and they stand to get Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson back in September, they're healthier than a Dodgers squad that won't welcome Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May or Gavin Lux back any time soon. Atlanta also has the softer remaining schedule.
The Dodgers Have the Better Duo
At the heart of both the Dodgers and Atlanta are duos of batsmen with eyes on the NL MVP, and Atlanta can justifiably believe it has the better one.
There's Acuña, who leads the majors with a .419 on-base percentage and has claimed a major league first by pairing 62 stolen bases with 30 home runs. There's also Matt Olson, who leads the NL with 43 home runs and the majors with 112 runs batted in.
But this is where that ol' cudgel, Wins Above Replacement, sticks its head in to point out that Mookie Betts is better than Acuña and that Freddie Freeman is better than Olson.
Los Angeles Dodgers @Dodgers36 homers? That's a new career-high for Mookie! <a href="">
This is according to both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, and it doesn't require an explanation worthy of that one meme from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia. Save for homers, RBI and slugging, Freeman leads Olson in everything. And the situation regarding Betts vs. Acuña is this simple:
- Better Hitter: Betts
- Better Baserunner: Acuña
- Better Defender: Betts
Betts has hit 38 home runs and leads Acuña with a 1.034 OPS, and he's fortified the Dodgers defense at not one, not two, but three positions. He's mostly played right field, but the Mookie-on-the-spot thing he's done on the middle of the infield despite rarely playing second base and never playing shortstop before 2023 is capital-B Bonkers.
"Right now, I think he is the best player on the planet," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said of Betts in August.
This debate only matters if one buys the notion that stars are what carry teams in October. But if one does, the Betts-Freeman duo ought to have one buying Dodgers stock right now.
Atlanta Is More of a Nightmare Matchup
As excellent as the Betts-Freeman duo may be, Atlanta has the better lineup. This is not a hot take. Or even a lukewarm one, really.
It's not all because of Acuña and Olson that Atlanta's offense boasts so many league-leading numbers, much less a 124 OPS+ that ranks as the best in the modern history of the National League. All nine of their regulars boast at least a 100 OPS+ and double-digit home runs.
And as much as anyone knows anything about how to win in the MLB postseason, there isn't much doubt that Atlanta's propensity for the long ball figures to be especially useful.
Since MLB's wild-card era began in 1995, the team that won the home run battle in a given playoff game also won the game 55 percent of the time. The advantage has been even more stark since 2015, wherein the homer battle winner has been victorious at a 64 percent clip.
Of course, all this happened before the new rules helped make hits and stolen bases more prevalent. But none of this has made the long ball any less relevant, nor does it figure to put Atlanta at any kind of disadvantage in the playoffs. In addition to home runs, it also leads MLB with a .276 average and is within the top 10 with 112 stolen bases.
So, Who's the Favorite for the NL Pennant?
Cutting right to the chase: Atlanta.
How they've done it leaves little doubt that the Dodgers' hot streak has been the real deal, but it has to tail off at some point. If they keep winning games at the rate they've been winning 'em since June 20, they stand to win 64 of their last 89 games. It's been done before, but only 13 times.
Besides, Atlanta merely needs to avoid going cold if it wants to retain the top spot in the National League. It's obviously so far, so good on that front, and there's no good reason to believe anything will change between now and the end of the season on Oct. 1.
Because the Dodgers have a league-best .676 winning percentage at home, Atlanta would be denying the Boys in Blue a substantial advantage if it claims the No. 1 seed. Between that and the relevance of Atlanta's long ball largesse, it's hard not to see it as the National League favorite even in the face of the Dodgers' recent rise.
This is what the crystal ball in this neck of the woods has to say, anyway. Whether time proves it wise or not, it sure doesn't feel like this weekend will be the last time these two teams encounter one another.
