Makhachev has lost just once as a professional mixed martial artist, when he was knocked out by Adriano Martins in 2015.
Outside of that loss, the closest we've seen him come to losing was last year, when he defeated featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski with a hotly debated unanimous decision.
Volkanovski had success against Makhachev for a number of reasons. He was able to weather the lightweight champion's offense on the feet. More notably, he was able to survive the submission attempts he encountered during the fight's many grappling exchanges. He also caught Makhachev off guard with some grappling aggression of his own.
Poirier and Volkanovski are very different fighters, but there's reason to believe Poirier could emulate the featherweight champion's strategy and outpoint Makhachev over five rounds.
He might have been knocked out by Justin Gaethje less than a year ago, but he absorbed some huge shots in his recent knockout win over Benoit Saint Denis, so it's fair to assume he can survive whatever he is not able block or dodge.
The 35-year-old is not the grappler Volkanovski is and has suffered several key submission losses, but he has also fought his way out of some bad spots on the mat, and if he's been working on his grappling, could well be able to escape the Russian's submission attacks. He's hardly a takedown artist, but he can scramble well and might also be able to surprise the champion on the mat.
If Poirier is able to do those things, and land enough of the thudding punches to the head and body he's known for, it's possible he could convince the judges he deserves the win in a long, drawn-out contest.
If nothing else, we know he's got the cardio to pull it off.
