Read Corey’s NHL Draft pick by pick analysis.
The 2023 NHL Draft is here and there is a lot of intrigue at the very top. After Connor Bedard, there’s no guarantee whose name will be called when Anaheim, Columbus, San Jose and Montreal pick. In a draft short on premium defensemen, when does the run start on names like David Reinbacher, Tom Willander, Dmitri Simashev and Axel Sandin Pellikka? And of course, who will choose Matvei Michkov?
Advertisement
Today, I do my best to unravel the mystery. Here is how I think the first round could play out. These are educated guesses, not firm reporting. Only the teams themselves know for certain who they’re targeting, so I give a scope of different scenarios and possibilities that could play out.
This pick has been locked in since the draft lottery results. Given the number of Chicago Bedard jerseys that have already been sold, it would be an all-time draft shocker if any other name is called. Bedard is a special player, a gamebreaker, and he will be in Chicago’s top six in October.
The intrigue begins shortly after Chicago’s pick though. A majority of my league sources think this will be Leo Carlsson. Some think it will be Fantilli. Most in the league think it should be Fantilli, which is my evaluation of the players as well. But throughout the draft year, there’s been a significant Leo Carlsson-at-No. 2 camp that sees a big center with game-breaking skill and hockey sense. Sometimes you hear rumors around this time of year and know what is and isn’t real. I don’t know what Anaheim will do, but Carlsson at No. 2 is a legitimate opinion around the league. I’ve heard the Matvei Michkov rumors here. I’m not buying it. I wouldn’t fall out of my chair if they called that name, but it would rattle.
If Anaheim goes with Carlsson, I think Columbus will very likely take Fantilli. If Fantilli goes at No. 2, then I think this is going to be Will Smith.
Most people in the league believe the Sharks will take whichever of the consensus top four centers are available. I believe this as well, and in this scenario it is Smith. I would not rule out Matvei Michkov here or David Reinbacher as possibilities, even if unlikely ones.
Advertisement
5. Montreal Canadiens: David Reinbacher, RHD, Kloten (NLA)
The league is convinced Montreal won’t pick Michkov. I am proceeding as if they won’t. It appears it’s coming down to Reinbacher and Ryan Leonard, and I will find people in the league who are confident it will be one or the other. I think they like both players a lot. History says management in these positions favor the defenseman. If one of the four top centers gets to them, I think they will go in that direction.
6. Arizona Coyotes: Ryan Leonard, RW, U.S NTDP (USHL)
Arizona has to and likely will seriously consider Michkov here. The issue will come down to signability. Can they get Michkov to sign on with an organization that doesn’t have an NHL rink? My guess is there would be reservations. So we proceed to plausible alternatives. Almost everyone in the league thinks if Montreal takes someone other than Reinbacher, that the top-rated defenseman will be a Coyote. If Montreal takes the defenseman, my best guess is between Leonard and Dalibor Dvorsky. GM Bill Armstrong wants to add compete to the organization. Both players are excellent in that regard, but Leonard has that in buckets.
It’s been the question of this draft cycle: Who is going to pick Michkov? There’s been all kinds of speculation. Will there be a free fall? As we get closer to the draft, I’m sensing the opposite and think there may be more teams trying to aggressively get up to pick him. My best guess at the 11th hour is he will be a Flyer. Philadelphia and Washington are two organizations who seem open to the idea of picking Michkov. Does Washington try to get ahead of Philly? Does Philly beat them to the punch and trade up instead? Montreal and Arizona’s spots are intriguing trade targets for a Michkov trade up. If this isn’t Michkov, I think Philly would target Leonard but I have heard Nate Danielson rumored here as well.
8. Washington Capitals: Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK (Allsvenskan)
Most of my recent mock drafts have discussed Michkov to Washington. I do think that remains a real possibility. But if Michkov goes ahead of them, the other player I believe they are high on is Dvorsky. I’ve had some people in the league wonder whether Washington at eight or Detroit at nine would pick Dmitri Simashev.
9. Detroit Red Wings: Matthew Wood, RW, UConn (Hockey East)
I think the top eight names above go in some order. After that, I think there’s a mini tier of three: Wood, Nate Danielson and Tom Willander. I’ve heard Danielson and Willander rumored to Detroit from league sources as well as Samuel Honzek and Gabe Perreault. The Willander noise has been the loudest in the closing days, but as usual Detroit is an organization that keeps information locked up rather well. These would be typical Yzerman-type players. But Wood would provide a lot of what Detroit lacks: skill and scoring ability, and he does it in a 6-foot-4 frame. He may not be the highest compete type in the world, which is why Detroit could lean to those other options, but at some point you need someone who can score goals.
Advertisement
10. St. Louis Blues: Nate Danielson, C, Brandon (WHL)
There are people in the NHL who are convinced Danielson is going in the top 10, some suggesting he is the likeliest player to break up the building consensus top eight names. But they struggle to identify a team that would make that pick. Detroit and St. Louis are the teams that make the most sense. Danielson could be the 2C to Robert Thomas down the line. I’ve thought for a while they may go defense here, but now I think they may try to address defensemen with their other firsts. I’ve heard Honzek and Wood rumored here, but my hunch is they go center after taking so many wings in recent drafts (unless they feel Honzek can be an NHL center).
11. Vancouver Canucks: Tom Willander, RHD, Rogle (Sweden Jr.)
Danielson, Wood and Colby Barlow have been linked to Vancouver, but I think they would really like to get Willander based both on the talent and the pressing need for some young defense talent. Danielson is also a strong possibility here if he’s available.
12. Arizona Coyotes: Dmitri Simashev, LHD, Lokomotiv (Russia Jr.)
I’m projecting a risky pick from the Coyotes here at 12. Like with a potential Michkov pick, there is risk in getting a player on a KHL deal to sign with a team without an NHL building. In an ideal world, Arizona would get Reinbacher at six or Willander at 12. Simashev has a lot of love in the league. There are quite a few organizations who rate him as the best defenseman in the draft on pure ability. People in the NHL quickly took notice when Armstrong, Arizona’s GM, was spotted live scouting Simashev and Daniil But in Belarus a few weeks before the draft. If Arizona decides to go in a different direction than a Russian, I think Wood, Zach Benson or Brayden Yager are possible here.
There’s been a lot of Simashev/Buffalo buzz in the draft leadup. If it’s not him, GM Kevyn Adams has emphasized skill and hockey sense in his draft picks. Gabe Perreault is one name I’ve heard rumored with Buffalo for all those reasons. I also think Oliver Moore or Benson are possibilities here.
14. Pittsburgh Penguins: Oliver Moore, C, J.S. NTDP (USHL)
If the draft breaks like this, the Penguins will likely be adding a skilled scorer to the mix. Benson, Perreault, Moore and Brayden Yager are all players I’ve heard connected to this pick, should they keep it. I think it will likely come down to one of those first three names. Do they want to add Moore’s speed or Benson/Perreault’s skill. That will be the question.
15. Nashville Predators: Samuel Honzek, LW, Vancouver (WHL)
I’ve been hearing big athletic types at this pick such as Honzek, Wood or either of the Lokomotiv players, Simashev or But.
Ideally, Calgary would like to add some size to their system. Honzek makes all the sense in the world and I could see him be a Flame if available at 16. But would be a swing, and a bit of a risky one given signability concerns, but at this point of the draft there isn’t another player with his combination of size, skill and speed. This is a potential landing spot for Calum Ritchie as well.
Advertisement
17. Detroit Red Wings: Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)
Detroit is rumored on a bunch of players. I’ve heard Sandin-Pellikka, I’ve heard Colby Barlow and Oliver Bonk here. There’s a lot of Honzek smoke if he’s available. Benson’s great motor and skill would be very enticing at 17 thought.
18. Winnipeg Jets: Axel Sandin Pellikka, RHD (Skelleftea-SHL)
I think Winnipeg would like to get bigger at 18. A guy like Honzek would be ideal. David Edstrom or Bonk are possibilities for those reasons. I’ve heard big guys like Anton Wahlberg and Charlie Stramel linked to them, but that seems high at 18. As much as they need size, they really need help on defense, which is no surprise that I’ve heard them linked to Sandin Pellikka, especially with Ville Heinola’s so-so development of late.
19. Chicago Blackhawks: Brayden Yager, C, Moose Jaw (WHL)
I think Chicago will want to continue to bolster its forward talent with its second-round pick. Yager, Moore and But have been the names people in the league think are likeliest to be Chicago picks at 19.
20. Seattle Kraken: Colby Barlow, LW, Owen Sound (OHL)
Barlow’s range within the league is wide. Some view him as a top-10 talent, while others struggle to see him in the top 20. In this mock, I think he slides a little further than expected. Ideally, I think Seattle would like to get a defenseman, so I think this is Sandin-Pellikka’s floor, but Barlow would be too much scoring to pass up at 20.
21. Minnesota Wild: Calum Ritchie, C, Oshawa (OHL)
I think odds are high the Wild will try to add center depth at 21 and they will have some options. Ritchie is going right around this range of the draft. Edstrom and Stramel are considerations here, and if either Moore or Yager get to 21, I think that’s their floor.
22. Philadelphia Flyers: Oliver Bonk, RHD, London (OHL)
After taking a big swing at No. 7, the Flyers take a steady, mobile puck-mover with size.
23. New York Rangers: Charlie Stramel, C, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
It’s quite possible I’m off on this one. I’ve heard from a lot of people in the league who think Stramel won’t be a Day One pick. But not everyone, myself included, agree. One team I’ve heard that’s in on him has been the Rangers. If Bonk is available here, I believe the Rangers will strongly consider him. I’ve also heard But rumored here as a potential floor for him.
Advertisement
24. Nashville Predators: David Edstrom, C, Frolunda (SHL)
I’ve heard Edstrom linked to Nashville. Some believe that means at 15, but 24 I think is far more likely. I’ve also heard the Predators are interested in Quentin Musty and Tanner Molendyk.
25. St. Louis Blues: Quentin Musty, LW, Sudbury (OHL)
Musty and the Blues have been a rumor for several months. Ideally, they would look defense here and could go after players like Molendyk, Theo Lindstein or Lukas Dragicevic. But I think if Musty is on the board they will pick him.
26. San Jose Sharks: Lukas Dragicevic, RHD, Tri-City (WHL)
I suspect the Sharks will look defenseman or possibly goaltender Michael Hrabal here. Dragicevic would provide a lot of skill and puck-moving ability. I think this is a possible spot for Bonk as well.
27. Colorado Avalanche: Tanner Molendyk, LHD, Saskatoon (WHL)
I’ve heard Bradly Nadeau rumored here, but I’ve mocked Molendyk to the Avs through the pre-draft process because I think he fits a lot of what they like to target in terms of skating. For that reason, I could see Lindstein or Mikhail Gulyayev here.
I think Toronto would prefer to add a defenseman with this pick. Dragicevic, Molendyk, Lindstein and Etienne Morin I think are possibilities. But Sale might be too much talent to pass up at 28. He has some dynamic traits but is inconsistent. Some in the league think this could be an Otto Stenberg landing spot as well.
29. St. Louis Blues: Theo Lindstein, LHD, Brynas (SHL)
Lindstein’s stock rose during the second half of the season with strong SHL and international play. The Blues address an organizational need by picking the highly mobile and intelligent puck-mover.
Carolina has a known type in terms of prioritizing skill and compete and Brindley checks those boxes with emphasis. I’ve mocked Bradly Nadeau here too.
Advertisement
31. Colorado Avalanche: Bradly Nadeau, RW, Penticton (BCHL)
After adding a defenseman at 27, I think Colorado would target a fast and competitive forward like Nadeau or Brindley.
Vegas has a bare farm system after trading a lot of young assets in pursuit of their Stanley Cup. They reload a bit at 32 by getting a player highly thought of by many scouts as a versatile, fast, goal scorer in Stenberg.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic. Photos: Carlsson, Majer / Getty Images; Bedard, Chase Agnello-Dean / NHLI via Getty Images; William Smith, Jari Pestelacci / Eurasia Sport Images)
